Bushels of Wheat Per Capita, 1866-2018 (Thesis #10)
- C&C
- Dec 10, 2020
- 4 min read
Updated: Dec 18, 2020
In Thesis #5 I asked:
From 1913-2018, how many bushels of wheat are there per capita? Did it change dramatically over time?
Fortunately, wheat production data goes as far back as 1866. U.S. Census data goes well beyond 1866, but we need not go any further back than 1860. With this data we can identify the bushels of wheat per capita (BPC) from 1866-2018. In excel format, this is what I found:
Wheat production grew tremendously over 152 years. For comparison purposes we will isolate the first and last full 10-year periods. The first and last full 10-year production periods are 1870-1880 and 2000-2010. Astonishingly, 1.78 billion bushels of wheat separate the average annual production between 1870-1880 and 2000-2010.
From 1880-1890, American soil produced 322 million bushels, annually. From 2000-2010, annual wheat production increased to 2.09 billion bushels, annually. That is a 555% increase in annual wheat production. Incredible.
Was this accomplished by tilling more acres of soil?
The amount of harvested acres increased from 1870-1910, plateaued from 1910-2000, and decreased from 2000-2018. From 1870-1880, an annual average of 26 million acres were harvested. From 1910-1920, an annual average of 54 million acres were harvested. And from 2000-2010, an annual average of 44 million acres were harvested.
Did the yield per acre increase?
From 1866-1950, the yield per acre of harvested land ranged between 12 and 17. From 1950-2018, the yield per acre absolutely exploded. In fact, the yield per acre doubled from 20 (1950-1960) to 41 (2010-2018). This explains why wheat production shot up, but did not require a commensurate amount of acreage to produce it.
*Improved faming equipment, pesticides, pestilence and rot-resistant seed and improved water works are the main reasons why harvest rates increased so dramatically.*
From 1860-2018, the U.S. population grew tenfold. In 1860 the population was 31 million. In 2018, the population was 326 million. That is a lot of mouths to feed?
Does wheat production keep up with the increase in the total population. One way to figure this out is to calculate the Bushels Per Capita (BPC).
The BPC does not move up and down much at all! As a matter of fact, the BPC never went below 5.44 (1870-1880) or above 8.8 (1970-1980) and these are the extremes. That stands in great contrast to the tremendous growth in productivity and efficiency. Despite all of those gains, today's BPC hovers at about the same level as it did from 1940-1970 and was actually higher from 1880-1920. All told, the highest BPC on record is from 1980-2000 when it hovers in the 8s.
Does the BPC move positively with the nominal price of wheat per bushel (PPB)?
The relationship between BPC and PPB is positive from 1910-2000 and negative from 2000-2018. The correlation is .92 from 1910-2000 and -.81 from 2000-2018. That is, the PPB increased when the BPC increased and decreased when BPC decreased. Only from 2000-2018 did the PPB increase with a proportionate decrease in supply.
It is a historic moment. For the first time (from 1910-2018), the price of wheat increased in light of supply and population pressures. This would not be evident if we did not calculate the BPC.
We can confirm this relationship if we look at the Consumer Price Index adjusted (CPI) PPB. Honing in on the more recent period, we find that the relationship between CPI PPB and BPC is minimal. CPI PPB falls from 1940-2000 and flatlines from 2000-2018. It does not appear that the ratio of wheat abundance affects the CPI PPB.
The CPI PPB has a strong negative relationship with total wheat production. In fact, the correlation is -0.80. As total production increases, CPI PPB decreases. This seems to be a natural economic relationship between supply and (presumed) demand.
So, while the supply of wheat rose, the CPI PPB fell. However, when the population proportionate production of wheat (BPC) fell, the CPI PPB flatlined and only the nominal PPB rose.
Given the data above, the production of wheat does not keep up with population growth. Accordingly, the nominal PPB rose, but the CPI (inflation adjusted) PPB flatlined.
Fun Fact:
A bushel of wheat is equivalent to 60 pounds (27.2 kilograms). From 1880-1890, 480 million bushels were produced every year, on average. Multiply 480 million bushels by 60 pounds and you get 28.8 billion pounds of wheat. In contrast, from 2000-2010, 2.01 billion bushels were produced every year, on average. Multiply 2.01 billion bushels by 60 pounds and you get 125.9 billion pounds of wheat.
Bibliography:
U.S. Census Bureau., United States. Bureau of the Census., United States. Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce., United States. Dept. of Commerce and Labor. Bureau of Statistics., United States. Dept. of the Treasury. Bureau of Statistics. (1879). Statistical abstract of the United States. Washington: U.S. G.P.O.. (1978), 99th Edition.
United States. Bureau of the Census. (1975). Historical statistics of the United States, colonial times to 1970. Bicentennial ed. Washington: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
National Agricultural Statistics Service. United States Department of Agriculture. Economics, Statistics and Market Information System. "Agriculture Statistics." United States Government Printing Office, Washington.
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