For Sale: Orbit Space (Thesis #3)

Statistica reports that there were 95 satellite launches in 2019 and according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, there are 2,666 satellites currently orbiting earth. 9https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database)

Prospects for far more satellites in the Earth's orbit are high. Given this trajectory, concerns for potential collisions are growing. In fact, the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology’s Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics held a hearing addressing this very concern:

"Outer space is vast. However, some of the orbits around Earth are becoming crowded, and spacecraft are becoming increasingly vulnerable to impacts from space debris. The dangers from space debris are coming at a time when nations are increasingly looking to space to support their national objectives, whether they be scientific, commercial, or national security-related." (https://science.house.gov/news/press-releases/chairwoman-johnson-opening-statement-for-space-situational-awareness-hearing)

Like the land, air and sea on Earth, the orbit around Earth will become contested space.

I foresee the discourse concerning the right to orbit space/property to run a similar course to the debate concerning fishing rights and the law of the sea. That debate followed maritime technological advancements that allowed more and longer faring shipping lines. International competition quickly followed. It was at this time, the 17th century, when conventions concerning international law and the freedom of the seas (Hugo Grotius, Mare Liberum, 1603) were formed.

Likewise, while cyber infrastructure is seemingly always growing, it will not always grow and may even recede for some period of time. When that time comes, prices for cyber space will rise. Concurrent with price hikes, governments will get involved as stakeholders in the domain of information processing, sharing and security. Conventions concerning cyberspace are in their formative years as well.

While cyber-attacks are not yet considered acts of war, they certainly qualify as acts of sabotage. Expect massive experiments in cyber-sabotage, defense and counter-sabotage during war and to a lesser extent during peacetime. An act of sabotage during peacetime like the (alleged) Russian cyber-sabotage on Estonia in 2008 or the American cyber-sabotage on Iran in 2010, can provoke, as they did, debates on conventions concerning cyberspace. I imagine something similar will occur concerning the Earths orbit.